Day 751 of the Labour government

0 British deaths since you opened this page0 in the policy gap

Preventative health

Issue three of three. UK Parliament + devolved responsibility.

UK Parliament + devolved

James Murray, Secretary of State for Health and Social Care · day 73 in post (succeeded Wes Streeting, resigned 14 May 2026)

Last substantive ministerial announcement: 9 days ago — James Murray succeeds Wes Streeting (Cabinet Office, 14 May 2026)

Mentions in Hansard last 30 days: 87 (19 front-bench)

Departmental press releases in last 90 days: 31

Active primary legislation: 2

Issue three — the figure

76,515

preventable and treatable deaths in 2026 so far · estimated £19bn annual cost to NHS and economy.

£71bn economic cost so far in 2026 · year-end projection £126bn. Obesity-only line — the largest single preventable-conditions cost published. Smoking (£51.9bn UK, ASH 2025) and alcohol (£27.4bn England, IAS 2024) are tracked separately. Nesta/Frontier Economics 2025 →

live · ONS Avoidable Mortality 2024 · updated just now

10-year trend · avoidable mortality, England, per 100k

2015 → 2024 · 232 → 228 per 100k · COVID spike to 263 in 2021, otherwise broadly flat · England, incl. IHD · ONS Avoidable Mortality 2024 →

The gap, in plain language

If the UK matched Finland's rate of 191 avoidable deaths per 100k (under 75), an estimated ~21,500 of these deaths would not happen each year. Match Japan's 135, and ~54,700 would not happen.

How the UK compares

Avoidable mortality, per 100,000 (under 75)

Lower is better. Source: OECD Health at a Glance 2025 (published Nov 2025, data year 2023). Preventable + treatable combined.

OECD high-income

Switzerland114

Japan135

Australia146

Netherlands149

Finland191

United Kingdom227

United States312

Source: OECD Health at a Glance 2025 — Avoidable mortality →

Avoidable mortality is the OECD-defined sum of preventable mortality (deaths the primary lever for which is public-health policy: air, road, tobacco, diet, alcohol, occupational risk) and treatable mortality (deaths the primary lever for which is the healthcare system: timely diagnosis, surgical access, cancer screening). UK breakdown 2023: preventable 156, treatable 71, avoidable 227.

Methodology

Avoidable mortality (preventable + treatable causes combined), age-standardised, per 100,000 population aged under 75. Source: OECD Health at a Glance 2025 (published November 2025, reference year 2023). This matches the 135,000 UK annual figure rendered elsewhere on the site (ONS Avoidable Mortality 2024, UK extrapolated) — both are the same defined measure.

↓ hover for methodology

What has been solved elsewhere

Finland — the North Karelia Project

case study

The North Karelia Project (1972 onwards) demonstrated that population-wide prevention works. Cardiovascular mortality reduced over 80% since 1970s; overall avoidable mortality halved.

Policy pillars

· Population-wide screening for risk factors (cholesterol, blood pressure)
· National salt-reduction policy with mandatory food labelling
· Comprehensive smoking cessation infrastructure
· Strong primary care with named GP per patient
· Annual health checks free at point of use

Outcomes

280 → 101

avoidable mortality per 100k fell from ~280 in 1980 to 101 today.

Cardiovascular deaths

−80%

since the project began.

What the UK would need to do

Restore public health budgets to 2015 levels (~£1.5bn annual increase). Establish a statutory national prevention strategy with ring-fenced funding. Roll out population-wide screening for cardiovascular and metabolic risk. Estimated cost over a parliament: £8–12 billion. Estimated cumulative British lives saved over 25 years: ~330,000.

↓ hover for the full case

Labour's prior statements

What Labour promised — 8 commitments

Tier 1 · governing party

“From sickness to prevention — one of three big shifts in our 10-year plan for the NHS.”
— Labour Manifesto 2024
IN PROGRESS
10-year plan published July 2025; prevention shift not yet operationalised.
“We will ban junk food advertising targeted at children.”
— Labour Manifesto 2024
PARTIALLY DELIVERED
Came into force 5 January 2026, with brand advertising exemption loophole.
“Ban the sale of high-caffeine energy drinks to under-16s.”
— Labour Manifesto 2024
IN PROGRESS
“Recruit 1,000 more GPs.”
— Labour Manifesto 2024
DELIVERED
NHS England Sept 2025: 1,897 WTE added since July 2024. Headline pledge met; methodology disputed.
“Dentistry Rescue Plan — 700,000 more urgent dental appointments and reform to the dental contract.”
— Labour Manifesto 2024
IN PROGRESS
“Halve the gap in healthy life expectancy between the areas of highest and lowest deprivation.”
— Labour Manifesto 2024
NOT DELIVERED
No measurable progress on gap closure to date.
“Opt-out smoking cessation interventions integrated into routine NHS care.”
— Labour Manifesto 2024
IN PROGRESS
“Tobacco and Vapes Bill — create the first smoke-free generation.”
— Labour Manifesto 2024
DELIVERED
Royal Assent 29 April 2026. Cross-party origin (Sunak 2023).

Notable absences

· No commitment to ring-fenced prevention budget within NHS spending.
· No specific commitment on alcohol harm — a major preventable mortality cause.
· No statutory targets for reducing avoidable mortality rates.
· No commitment on tackling obesity in adults (only children).

The standing record for this issue

Days in office

751

since 5 July 2024.

Days since this minister appointed

James Murray succeeded Wes Streeting on 14 May 2026.

Promise-to-delivery

2 / 8

of 8 tracked commitments delivered. 1 partial, 4 in progress, 1 not delivered.

Write about this →

What the leaders do that we do not

Finland — North Karelia Project, launched 1972 by KTL (now THL) with parliamentary backing; scaled nationally 1977.
Population-wide community intervention: food-industry salt reduction plus iodised low-sodium salt subsidies, the Tobacco Act 1977 (first national smoke-free law in Europe), berry and vegetable substitution for animal fat, and free hypertension/cholesterol screening through the primary-care network.
Coronary heart disease mortality in working-age men in North Karelia fell 84% from 1972 to 2014 (THL). National male CHD mortality fell over 80%. Serum cholesterol −20%. Smoking-related cancer mortality −50% in men. Around two-thirds of the decline is attributed to risk-factor reduction, one-third to treatment.
Source: THL (Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare); Puska & Jaini, Am. J. Lifestyle Med. 2020; Jousilahti et al., Circulation 2016 →
Japan — Tokutei Kenshin / Tokutei Hoken Shidō — 2008 amendment to the Health Insurance Act (No. 80 of 1922) under the 2006 Healthcare System Reform.
Statutory duty on all health insurers to provide annual metabolic-syndrome screening — waist circumference, BP, lipids, glucose — to every insured person aged 40–74. Positive screens receive a structured 3- or 6-month motivational or active guidance programme. Insurers face financial penalties on the late-stage-elderly contribution if participation or results miss MHLW targets.
Participation reached ~58–60% of the eligible 40–74 cohort by 2023 (the MHLW target is 70%). Intensive-guidance participants lost 1.98 kg (men) and 2.25 kg (women) at one year versus 0.42 and 0.68 kg in non-participants. Mortality impact not yet detectable.
Source: MHLW Health Insurance Bureau; PMC5906184; PMC7691040 (Impact on Mortality) →
South Korea — National Health Promotion Act (Act No. 4914 of 1995); Health Promotion Fund operational from 1997 under Article 22.
Statutorily hypothecates the Health Promotion Charge on every pack of cigarettes (KRW 841 per pack since the 2015 tax hike) into a dedicated Fund administered by MOHW. Finances smoking-cessation clinics, mass-media campaigns, NCD screening, and the Korea Health Promotion Institute (KHEPI). The 2015 hike raised pack price from KRW 2,500 to KRW 4,500.
Adult male smoking prevalence fell from 66.3% in 1998 to 30.0% in 2022. The overall smoking rate is now 17.7% — a 49.6% relative decline since 1998. Pack sales fell 23.7% in the year after the 2015 hike. The Fund is one of the world's largest dedicated health-promotion funds.
Source: National Health Promotion Act No. 4914 (1995, English); World Bank 'Reducing Tobacco Use through Taxation: Republic of Korea' (2018) →

Your move — write to your MP

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Dear your MP,

I am writing about the 76,515 preventable British deaths so far in 2026 — and the 135,000 that will happen by year end. The UK rate is 50% above Finland's.

Labour's 2024 manifesto pledged a shift "from sickness to prevention" as one of three big shifts in the NHS 10-year plan. 751 days in, that shift has not been operationalised. There is no ring-fenced prevention budget. No statutory targets for reducing avoidable mortality.

I am asking you to press the new Health Secretary, James Murray, to publish a national prevention strategy with ring-fenced funding within 100 days.

Yours sincerely,
[your name]

Drafting your statement

Dear your MP, I am writing about the 76,515 preventable British deaths so far in 2026 — and the 135,000 that will happen by year end. The UK rate is 50% above Finland's. Labour's 2024 manifesto pledged a shift "from sickness to prevention" as one of three big shifts in the NHS 10-year plan. 751 days in, that shift has not been operationalised. There is no ring-fenced prevention budget. No statutory targets for reducing avoidable mortality. I am asking you to press the new Health Secretary, James Murray, to publish a national prevention strategy with ring-fenced funding within 100 days. Yours sincerely, [your name]

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